CME Scoreboard
Prediction for CME (2022-07-08T20:48:00-CME-001)
CME Observed Time: 2022-07-08T20:48ZiSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/20757/-1
CME Note: An eruption associated with the long-duration M2.5-class solar flare which occurred near N20E40. The CME presents itself as a faint halo in SOHO/C3 imagery and possibly a halo in Stereo-A/COR2A imagery with a bulk component mostly to the east in all available coronagraph imagery. The eruption as seen in coronal imagery is relatively unimpressive with mostly bright post-eruptive arcades and an EUV wave that traverses north and west of the source region best seen in SDO AIA 211 imagery.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2022-07-11T09:22Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
Max Kp: 4.0
Predicted Arrival Time: 2022-07-11T18:08Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)
Prediction Method: EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)
Prediction Method Note:
************************************************************************************** % Compiled module: EAM ************************************************************************************** Most pr. speed = 735.0 km/sec The EAM version you are running is: v3 Utilizing the upgraded version EAM_v3 [Paouris et al. 2021] u_r = 444.705 Acceleration: 1.26944 Duration in seconds: 249645.16 Duration in days: 2.8894116 t2 is negative ************************************************************************************** Acceleration of the CME: 1.27 m/s^2 Velocity of the CME at 1 AU: 761.6 km/s Expected date and time for the arrival of the CME: 11/07/2022 Time: 18:08 UT **************************************************************************************Lead Time: 9.20 hour(s)
Difference: -8.77 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Evangelos Paouris (JHUAPL) on 2022-07-11T00:10Z
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